According to an International Energy Agency (IEA) electricity market report, renewables combined with nuclear power will more than cover global electricity demand growth between 2022 and 2025. This will cause global power-sector carbon dioxide emissions to plateau.
The IEA predicts that global electricity demand will rebound strongly in 2023, adding another 2,500 terawatt hours (TWh) of demand in the next three years. In fact, by 2025 Asia will account for more than half of global electricity demand, with China alone accounting for a third of it. This is a dramatic increase from 1990 and 2015 figures, when China accounted for only 5% and 25% respectively.
A surge in nuclear generation is expected, driven by China, India, France and Japan, with a 302TWh increase by 2025.
In the next three years, renewable energy sources are expected to overtake coal. Renewables would increase their share of global electricity generation from 29% to 35%, while coal would drop to 33%. Gas would still generate 21%of electricity in 2025 and nuclear, 10%.
The IEA predicts that power-sector CO2 emissions will plateau, but remain at or just below the record high level they reached in 2022.
It's important to realize that electricity supply and demand are increasingly becoming weather dependent, having to adapt to more frequent heat waves, droughts and storms. There is a need for increased flexibility from customers and for expanded storage capacity. Also, dispatchable renewables such as hydro reservoir, geothermal and biomass plants are essential for balancing out the variable sources of renewable energy (wind and solar) in order to ensure reliable and efficient electricity supply.
Source: Carbon Brief