A recent study from Tufts University's Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy reveals that the risk of extreme temperatures, which can harm crop yields, has risen notably in wheat-producing areas of the United States and China. According to the study, heat waves that were previously occurring once every hundred years, are now projected to happen once every six years in the Midwestern United States and once every 16 years in Northeastern China.
High temperatures during spring, when winter wheat is flowering, can impact its growth. Heat stress begins when temperatures exceed 27.8 degrees Celsius, while temperatures over 32.8 degrees Celsius can cause the breakdown of essential enzymes in wheat plants.
Record-breaking heat often coincides with severe drought conditions, which can have a detrimental impact on the growing season. The United States and China are crucial global breadbaskets, contributing significantly to global grain production. If these regions experience crop failures simultaneously, alongside other staple crops, it could have serious repercussions on food availability and prices worldwide.
Weather patterns are influenced by a degree of randomness, similar to rolling a six-sided die, resulting in a range of possibilities. Until now, wheat-producing regions have experienced relatively cooler weather. However, climate change has altered the probabilities, making extreme heat events more likely. These regions may not have encountered the full extent of what is possible, and they might be unprepared for the potential consequences. Research findings can inform climate adaptation plans in wheat-producing regions, enabling stakeholders to prepare for the forthcoming unprecedented events associated with climate change.
Source: phys.org